INTERVIEW With Joshua Samuel Brown
By Robert H. McElroy
TheWeekInCongress.com-Mar. 18, 2005 (Taiwan) -
TheWeekInCongress-China just passed the succession resolution that some say will lead to an invasion of Taiwan. Coincidentally the US Congress is poised to renew the expiring Taiwan relations Act that promises US intervention if anyone attacks Taiwan. Although it is not likely that the US will have to take action, the secession legislation has certainly raised some blood pressure in both countries. From this vantage point (in the US) it looks like Taiwan seceded when Chang left the country to Mao. After that it seemed to be decades of “Where is the real China?” What prompted the secession legislation?
Joshua Samuel Brown-With your first sentence you’ve fallen into the common fallacy of seeing this conflict as one of Chang Kai Shek vs. Mao. CKS wasn’t Taiwanese – He had no moral or legal authority to decide anything for the Taiwanese people. He was a warlord with enough “Made in America” hardware to do in Taiwan what he never could in Mainland China – Completely subjugate the population. Prior to his arrival Taiwan had been a Japanese colony, given up by the last real Qing Emperor (discounting the Child King Pu Yi)
In the late 1880s, as at the end of WWII, the aspirations of the Taiwanese people weren’t considered. CKS, with the help of TIME publisher and virulent Red-baiter Henry Luce, proceeded to propagate the idea that the conflict was one between a democratic China (temporarily located in Taiwan) and a Red China. But there was no democracy in Taiwan – Quite the opposite, and it was only when democracy was finally allowed that the true question could even be addressed.
What led to the (secession legislation) at this particular moment? Basically, Chen Shui-Bian (Taiwanese President) is walking a fine line. He needs to keep the support of his pro-independence constituents, but if he goes too far in doing so he risks having the whole house of cards collapsing on him because, in all likelihood, if he did exactly what his constituency wants – declare Taiwan to be an independent nation and dissolve the “Republic of China” – the PRC would have no choice but to attack because sentiment against Taiwan independence has been ramped up so high for years that failure to do so would cause anti-government riots from Beijing to Hainan and quite possibly in Urumqi and Lhassa (though those riots would have a distinctly different flavor).
So what he (Chen) proposed (to satisfy his pro-independence constituents) was a strange half measure: to remove the name “China” from certain national Taiwanese institutions such as “China” Air and several others. That was seen in Beijing as a definite slippery slope to a declaration of independence, and so they (PRC) put the boot down by putting into words a law that didn’t really need to be put into words: Its already been understood by all parties that a declaration of independence by Taiwan would prompt an ugly response from Beijing.
TWIC-What drives the movement in Taiwan towards independence? If they are largely Taiwanese, why should the PRC care what they do?
JSB-Taiwanese people, even moderates who want eventual re-unification have a
justified fear of what happens under mainland military and political rule. Google
"228 incident" or "white terror + Taiwan" for a taste of why. Also, Taiwanese
people really like their democracy, and would be loathe to lose it. They see how
democracy in Hong Kong is being chipped away.
Why should the PRC care? They see Taiwan as an integral part of China that was
wrested from the mother land first by imperialism and then by civil war. The
Chinese government has been hyping this line for so long that to backtrack would
be akin to the Pope announcing that Catholic church has changed its position on
abortion and birth control.
TWIC-Does Taiwan believe that the PRC would attack and if so, would it lean heavily on the US Taiwan Relations Act for military defense?
JSB-Most of the people I know in Taiwan don’t believe the PRC would attack except if the Taiwan government came right out and declared independence. Many people on the mainland do believe that Taiwan needs to be “taught a lesson”. Anyone in the region with half a brain realizes that a war in the (Taiwan) Straits would be a disaster, not just for both sides economically, but for the entire region, a major disruption of commerce and trade that would cause a global economic crisis. As far as the second part of the question; Most Taiwanese I speak to feel, strangely enough, about the same as many across the strait, namely that Americans would not be willing to endure the casualties they’d have to endure in an all-out fire fight with China, and eventually America would have to let Taiwan go. So, the current (Bush) administration also has everything to lose if the status quo were to be disrupted, but (he) doesn’t mind tweaking China every now and then using any available means (including the idea of Chinese threats against democratic Taiwan)
TWIC-Certainly the PRC would be a formidable foe as is. Why does China want to buy arms from the European Union? Why buy arms at all? (The US and EU banned weapon sales to China in 1989. Recently, some EU countries increased arms sales and the EU is expected to lift the embargo - against US wishes, Ed.)
JSB-Nature of the beast. You can't ever have enough arms. Furthermore,
taking Taiwan wouldn't be a cakewalk, as Taiwan is a) an island and b) armed to
the teeth. China's navy wouldn't be up to the task without serious air and
missile power, and right now the scales aren't tipped far enough in China's
favor. Perhaps we can thank the Powell doctrine for this, i.e., if you're going
to fight a war do it all out with all scales tilted heavily in your favor. And
both sides are continually arming and upgrading. Further, for China, having
access to EU arms is a major diplomatic victory after years of sanctions. And
its better to have weapons and not need them then to need weapons and not have
them, eh?
TWIC-I would venture that one major obstacle to either side wanting a war is the impact it would have on their economies. There is a growing economic relationship between Taiwan and the PRC. What's that look like, what products services or investments are intertwining the two these days and are there any cooperative business arrangements between Taiwan and China with the US?
JSB-Good question. There are millions of Taiwanese doing business in China - indeed, the ban on cross-strait direct flights is one supported by the current Taiwan government, and not Beijing.
TWIC-Why is that?
JSB- Hsinchu Science Park
is one of Taiwan's major economic engines, where many of Taiwan's richest
companies and chip-making plants are located. One joke goes like this - "If full
cross strait ties are ever allowed, they'll have to put up a sign at the gates
of the Hsinchu Science Park that reads "Will the last one out en-route to China
please shut the lights?"
The connection between Taiwanese brain-power/capital and Mainland ren li
(manpower), and how these connections make a war across the straits extremely
undesirable, and unlikely despite current saber rattling, is a big topic. Just
an hour or so out of Shanghai is a smallish city called Kunshan otherwise known
as "Taiwan Town" for its huge population of Taiwanese upper and mid management
types who've come over with their families to run factories in and around
Shanghai. There are places like this in many Chinese provinces, towns where the
major employees of locals are Taiwanese. So its complex.
As for the second part of the question, all global businesses are cooperative in some way. Consider the following: IBM is a nominally American company (hard to keep up with these things), but they almost definitely buy chips that are made by a Taiwanese company with plants in Guangdong (Mainland China). So any cross-straits war would disrupt the supply chain from top to bottom.
TWIC-With cross-strait ties opened, why would business vacate to the mainland? Cheap labor?
JSB-Basically. Ten years ago, Mainland China lacked the managerial brain
power, so Taiwanese businesses could open factories in the mainland, hire the
grunt work there but be assured that all management would stay in Taiwanese hands.
Now there's no shortage of mainlanders with degrees, but pay still remains lower
than that in Taiwan. It would mean a lot of lost jobs in Taiwan. In my
opinion and the opinion of many cooler heads on both sides and beyond, the
status quo is fine and can be maintained for another generation. Eventually the
two sides will be so economically intertwined that some sort of happy
confederation can be achieved without bloodshed or loss of face.##
Writing by Brown can be read on
josambro.com
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